Poland Set to 'Soon Overtake Britain in Military Strength And Income'

Britain is on course to ending up being a 'second tier' European nation like Spain or Italy due to financial decrease and a weak armed force that undermines its usefulness to allies, an expert has alerted.

Research teacher Dr Azeem Ibrahim OBE concluded in a damning brand-new report that the U.K. has been paralysed by low financial investment, high tax and misguided policies that might see it lose its standing as a top-tier middle power at current development rates.

The stark assessment weighed that succeeding government failures in guideline and bring in financial investment had actually caused Britain to miss out on out on the 'industries of the future' courted by developed economies.

'Britain no longer has the commercial base to logistically sustain a war with a near-peer like Russia for more than 2 months,' he wrote in The Henry Jackson Society's latest report, Strategic Prosperity: The Case for Economic Growth as a National Security Priority.

The report assesses that Britain is now on track to fall back Poland in regards to per capita income by 2030, and that the central European country's military will quickly go beyond the U.K.'s along lines of both manpower and devices on the existing trajectory.

'The concern is that when we are reduced to a second tier middle power, it's going to be virtually impossible to return. Nations don't come back from this,' Dr Ibrahim told MailOnline today.

'This is going to be sped up decline unless we nip this in the bud and have bold leaders who are able to make the challenging choices right now.'

People pass boarded up stores on March 20, 2024 in Hastings, England

A British soldier reloads his rifle on February 17, 2025 in Smardan, Romania

Staff Sergeant Rai utilizes a radio to speak to Archer teams from 19th Regiment Royal Artillery during a live fire variety on Rovajärvi Training Area, during Exercise Dynamic Front, Finland

Dr Ibrahim welcomed the federal government's choice to increase defence costs to 2.5% of GDP from April 2027, however warned much deeper, systemic problems threaten to irreversibly knock the U.K. from its position as an internationally prominent power.

With a weakening commercial base, Britain's usefulness to its allies is now 'falling back even second-tier European powers', he cautioned.

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'Not just is the U.K. predicted to have a lower GDP per capita than Poland by 2030, but likewise a smaller army and one that is unable to sustain deployment at scale.'

This is of specific issue at a time of increased geopolitical tension, with Britain pegged to be among the leading forces in Europe's fast rearmament project.

'There are 230 brigades in Ukraine right now, Russian and Ukrainian. Not a single European nation to mount a single heavy armoured brigade.'

'This is an enormous oversight on the part of subsequent governments, not simply Starmer's issue, of failing to buy our military and essentially outsourcing security to the United States and NATO,' he told MailOnline.

'With the U.S. getting fatigue of providing the security umbrella to Europe, Europe now needs to stand on its own and the U.K. would have remained in a premium position to really lead European defence. But none of the European countries are.'

Slowed defence spending and patterns of low productivity are absolutely nothing brand-new. But Britain is now likewise 'failing to adjust' to the Trump administration's shock to the rules-based global order, said Dr Ibrahim.

The former consultant to the 2021 Integrated Defence and Security Review noted in the report that in spite of the 'weakening' of the organizations as soon as 'secured' by the U.S., Britain is reacting by harming the last vestiges of its military might and financial power.

The U.K., he stated, 'appears to be making significantly pricey gestures' like the ₤ 9bn handover of the tactical Chagos Islands and opening talks on reparations for Caribbean Slavery.

The surrender of the Chagos Islands in the Indian Ocean has actually been the source of much scrutiny.

Negotiations between the U.K. and Mauritius were begun by the Tories in 2022, but an arrangement was revealed by the Labour government last October.

Dr Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute defence and security think thank cautioned at the time that 'the move shows stressing tactical ineptitude in a world that the U.K. federal government explains as being characterised by fantastic power competition'.

Calls for the U.K. to provide reparations for its historical function in the servant trade were rekindled also in October last year, though Sir Keir Starmer stated ahead of a meeting of Commonwealth nations that reparations would not be on the agenda.

An Opposition 2 main battle tank of the British forces during the NATO's Spring Storm workout in Kilingi-Nomme, Estonia, Wednesday, May 15, 2024

Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk speak throughout a press conference in Warsaw, Poland, January 17, 2025

Dr Ibhramin assessed that the U.K. appears to be acting versus its own security interests in part due to a narrow understanding of risk.

'We comprehend soldiers and rockets however stop working to completely conceive of the threat that having no alternative to China's supply chains might have on our capability to react to military hostility.'

He suggested a new security design to 'improve the U.K.'s strategic on a rethink of migratory policy and threat evaluation, access to unusual earth minerals in a market controlled by China, and the prioritisation of energy security and independence via financial investment in North Sea gas and a long-overdue rethink on atomic energy.

'Without instant policy modifications to reignite growth, Britain will become a reduced power, reliant on more powerful allies and susceptible to foreign coercion,' the Foreign Policy writer said.

'As international economic competition heightens, the U.K. needs to decide whether to embrace a strong growth agenda or resign itself to irreparable decrease.'

Britain's dedication to the concept of Net Zero may be admirable, however the pursuit will prevent growth and obscure tactical goals, he alerted.

'I am not saying that the environment is trivial. But we merely can not manage to do this.

'We are a nation that has failed to purchase our financial, in our energy facilities. And we have considerable resources at our disposal.'

Nuclear power, including using small modular reactors, could be a boon for the British economy and energy independence.

'But we've stopped working to commercialise them and certainly that's going to take a considerable quantity of time.'

Britain did present a brand-new funding model for nuclear power stations in 2022, which lobbyists including Labour politicians had actually insisted was key to discovering the money for costly plant-building jobs.

While Innovate UK, Britain's innovation agency, has actually been heralded for its grants for small energy-producing companies at home, business owners have actually warned a broader culture of 'threat hostility' in the U.K. stifles financial investment.

In 2022, earnings for the poorest 14 million individuals fell by 7.5%, per the ONS. Pictured: Waterlooville High Street, Waterlooville, Hants

Undated file photo of The British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT) or Chagos Islands

Britain has regularly stopped working to acknowledge the looming 'authoritarian hazard', enabling the pattern of handled decrease.

But the resurgence of autocracies on the world phase threats even more weakening the rules-based global order from which Britain 'benefits enormously' as a globalised economy.

'The threat to this order ... has developed partially since of the lack of a robust will to defend it, owing in part to ponder foreign efforts to overturn the recognition of the true hiding risk they present.'

The Trump administration's cautioning to NATO allies in Europe that they will have to do their own bidding has gone some way towards waking Britain approximately the seriousness of buying defence.

But Dr Ibrahim warned that this is inadequate. He prompted a top-down reform of 'basically our entire state' to bring the ossified state back to life and sustain it.

'Reforming the well-being state, reforming the NHS, reforming pensions - these are basically bodies that take up enormous amounts of funds and they'll just keep growing considerably,' he told MailOnline.

'You could double the NHS spending plan and it will truly not make much of a damage. So all of this will need fundamental reform and will take a lot of guts from whomever is in power due to the fact that it will make them unpopular.'

The report outlines suggestions in radical tax reform, pro-growth migration policies, and a restored concentrate on protecting Britain's role as a leader in high-tech industries, energy security, and international trade.

Vladimir Putin speaks with the guv of Arkhangelsk area Alexander Tsybulsky during their conference at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, Tuesday, March 11, 2025

File image. Britain's economic stagnation might see it quickly become a 'second tier' partner

Boarded-up stores in Blackpool as more than 13,000 stores closed their doors for excellent in 2024

Britain is not alone in falling behind. The Trump administration's persistence that Europe pay for its own defence has actually cast fresh light on the Old Continent's alarming scenario after years of slow development and reduced spending.

The Centre for Economic Policy Research examined at the end of last year that Euro area economic efficiency has been 'controlled' given that around 2018, showing 'diverse challenges of energy dependence, manufacturing vulnerabilities, and shifting international trade dynamics'.

There remain profound disparities between European economies; German deindustrialisation has hit companies hard and forced redundancies, while Spain has actually grown in line with its tourism-focused economy.

This remains delicate, however, with homeowners progressively upset by the viewed pandering to foreign visitors as they are priced out of budget friendly accommodation and trapped in low paying seasonal jobs.

The Henry Jackson Society is a diplomacy and nationwide security think thank based in the United Kingdom.

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